Graham Shapiro Humanities and Social Science
Utilizing long-term memory to model Northern California earthquakes
Does there exist a relationship between the times of past earthquakes and the time until the next earthquake? Recent research suggests that there exists patterns in earthquake occurrence that exist between long sequences of earthquakes. Most current earthquake models assume earthquakes are either memoryless or only incorporate short-term memory. The purpose of this research is to develop a statistical earthquake model that incorporates time-dependence as well as long-term memory. Specifically to create a computer implemented time dependant statistical model of temporal sequences of earthquake features to estimate the effect of long term memory on the magnitude and occurrence times of earthquakes in Northern California.